Teoria probabilității în tranzacționare

Related theories[ edit ] Most theoretical analyses of risky choices depict each option as a gamble that can yield various outcomes with teoria probabilității în tranzacționare probabilities.


Expected utility theory[ edit ] Expected Utility Theory EUT poses a utility calculation linearly combining weights and values of the probabilities associated with various outcomes. By presuming that decision-makers themselves incorporate an accurate weighting of probabilities into calculating expected values for their decision-making, EUT assumes that people's subjective probability-weighting matches objective probability differences, when they are, in reality, exceedingly disparate.

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A large majority of people prefer the sure thing over the gamble, although the gamble has higher mathematical expected value also known as expectation. The expected value of a monetary gamble is a weighted average, in which each possible outcome is weighted by its probability of occurrence.

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The expected value of the gamble in this example is. An asset must be considered in regard to how they will move within the market and by taking these movements into account an investment portfolio can be constructed that decreased risk and had a constant expected return.

It is 6 times as likely that a random day is not a Sunday. Gambling usage[ edit ] The use of odds in gambling facilitates betting on events where the relative probabilities of outcomes varied. For example, on a coin toss or a match race between two evenly matched horses, it is reasonable for two people to wager level stakes. However, in more variable situations, such as a multi-runner horse race or a football match between two unequally matched sides, betting "at odds" provides a perspective on the relative likelihoods of the possible outcomes. In the modern era, most fixed odds betting takes place teoria probabilității în tranzacționare a betting organisation, such as a bookmakerand an individual, rather than between individuals.

MPT has been critiqued for using standard deviation as a form of measurement. Furthermore, under MPT, two portfolios could be represented by the same level of variance hence would be considered equally desirable.

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The first portfolio may experience small losses frequently, and the second may experience a singular decline. This contrast between portfolios needs to be examined by investors prior to their purchasing of assets.

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By eliminating downside risk instead of volatility, Post-modern portfolio theory aims to build on MPT. In contrast to EUT, PT is posited as an alternative theory of choice, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets total wealthand in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights.

Defined on gains and losses cum să câștigi bani pe ratele dolarului than on total teoria probabilității în tranzacționare. Concave in the domain of gains risk aversion and convex in the domain of losses risk seeking. Considerably steeper for losses than for gains see also loss aversion.

PT's S-shaped probability-weighted, non-linear value function deems risk aversion context-dependent, as the gain-loss asymmetry illustrated above, results from our psychological assessments of risk hardly matching objective assessments of risk.

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One conceivable component of risk aversion in the framework of PT is that the degree of risk aversion apparent will vary depending on where teoria probabilității în tranzacționare the curve our decision lies. PT captures this pattern of differentially weighting objective probabilities subjectively with an S-shaped weighting function.

Risky prospects are characterized by their possible outcomes and by the probabilities of these outcomes. The following pair of problems attests to the power of framing effects in manipulating either risk-averse or risk-seeking behavior.

The total number of respondents in each problem is denoted by N, and the percentage who chose each option is indicated teoria probabilității în tranzacționare parentheses. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows: If Program A is adopted, people will be saved.

The outcomes of the programs include the reference state and two possible gains, measured by the number of lives saved. As expected, preferences are risk averse: a clear majority of respondents prefer saving lives for sure over a gamble that offers a one-third chance of saving lives. Assume that teoria probabilității în tranzacționare exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows: If Program C is adopted, people will die.

The second version, however, assumes a reference state in which no one dies of the disease. The best outcome is the maintenance of this state and the alternatives are losses measured by the number of people that will die of the disease. People who evaluate options in these terms are expected to show a risk-seeking preference for the gamble option D over the sure loss of lives. This may be based on a rephrasing of the outcomes that conveys no differential information about the treatments and that changes nothing about the outcomes themselves.

By paying a premium often higher than the cost of replacement for the possibility that insurance may come in handy, people display direct risk aversion by valuing a risky prospect below the value of its worst possible outcome replacement at face-value.

Suppose you are undecided whether or not to purchase earthquake insurance because the premium is quite high. As you hesitate, your friendly insurance agent comes forth with an alternative offer: "For half the regular premium you can be fully covered if the quake occurs on an odd day of the month.

This is a good deal because for half the price you are covered for more than half the days. Reducing the risk by half, then, is not worth half the premium. The aversion to probabilistic insurance is significant for three reasons.

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First, it undermines the classical explanation of insurance in terms of a concave utility function. Participants then had to indicate how much money they would have to be offered for them to be indifferent between receiving that dollar amount for sure and having the specified chance of winning the prize. Affect-rich outcomes yield more pronounced overweighting of small probabilities, but more pronounced underweighting of large probabilities.

When a positive outcome is available, any departure from impossibility may engender hope affect-rich and positiveand any deviation from certainty may produce fear affect-rich but negative. The following study demonstrates that the opposite pattern is also true: when the available outcome is negative, departures from impossibility engender teoria probabilității în tranzacționare, and deviations from certainty produce hope.

They were then asked to indicate how much money they would have to pay for them to be indifferent between paying that amount for sure and teoria probabilității în tranzacționare in the hypothetical experiment.

Risk aversion (psychology) - Wikipedia

Both Experiments 1 and 2 investigated outcomes that were gains over the status quo. Experiment 3 studied negative outcomes and also found evidence of a weighting function that is more S-shaped for affect-rich that affect-poor prizes. Therefore, probability-outcome dependence based on the affect-rich psychology of risk applies in the domains of both gains and losses.

What about the best? At what frequency are you able to recall memories that are teoria probabilității în tranzacționare in comparison to those that are positive? Does it seem like negative information is remembered with more ease and clarity than positive information? Why is it easier to know the percentage teoria probabilității în tranzacționare fatal car accidents each year, as opposed to the percentage of accidents without fatalities?

The human brain demonstrates teoria probabilității în tranzacționare partiality for the processing of negative information. In comparison with their positive counterparts, negative stimuli receive a larger allocation of attention and a swifter response once recognized by the brain.

Researchers localized this particular ERP to the ventrolateral occipital cortex. Given that a greater amount of attention is allotted to the processing of negative stimuli, the negativity bias may also be indicative of an attentional bias. The negativity bias is noticeable in a plethora teoria probabilității în tranzacționare situations related to the formation of risk-averse behaviour.

Notably, any stimuli that evokes the expression of fear encourages risk -aversion. The human brain has adapted to easily parse out these stimuli from a sea of benign stimuli.

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Decision making and emotion, intertwined, cannot be separated from each other, as emotion can either benefit or hinder the attainment of maximized utility.

Influence of emotion on decision making[ edit ] Three different emotional states influence decision making: Your current emotional state i. How do you feel while you are making a decision? Your past emotional state i.

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How did you feel anticipating your decision? Your future emotional state i. How will your decision affect how you feel in the future; What effect will the decision have on your emotional well-being?

Iowa gambling task[ edit ] Researching decision-making and affect, Antoine Bechara, Antonio Damasio and colleagues ; discovered that damage to a brain area associated with emotional processing impairs effective decision-making.

In creating this task, Damasio wondered whether decision-making was afflicted because emotion was a necessary component to making effective decisions. In the task, participants continuously draw from one out of four possible decks — participants may switch decks at any point during the study.

Each card possesses monetary value, resulting in either gains or losses.

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Participants are unaware that 2 of the decks correspond to net winnings — low payoffs and even lower losses. The other 2 decks correspond to net losses — high payoffs and even higher losses. Researchers instruct participants to maximize their utility — gain the most money by the end of the task. Teoria probabilității în tranzacționare order to complete this task successfully, participants must discern that the decks associated with net winning, yet low payoffs, maximize their utility.

Damasio noticed that participants with damage to their orbitofrontal cortex were unable to realize that the deck associated with low payoffs yielded higher reward.

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Alternate Conclusions. Other researchers suggest that the difficulty encountered by patients with orbitofrontal cortex damage on Iowa Gambling Task is because the task requires participants to change their initial perception of potential gains and losses.

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Thus, orbitofrontal cortex damage inhibits the adaptation to changing patterns of rewards and punishment. This conclusion has been replicated in primates, where orbitofrontal damage prevented the extinction of a learned association. When confronted with a decision, we may react emotionally to the teoria probabilității în tranzacționare, a reaction that manifests as changes in physiological arousal in the body, or somatic markers.

Given data collected from the Ușor de câștigat bani uriași Gambling Task, Damasio postulated that the orbitofrontal cortex assists individuals in forming an association between somatic markers and the situations that trigger them. Once an association is made, the orbitofrontal cortex and other brain areas evaluate an individual's previous experiences eliciting similar somatic markers.

Once recognized, the orbitofrontal cortex can determine an adequate and swift behavioural response, and its likeliness for teoria probabilității în tranzacționare. Neuroscience of risk aversion[ edit ] Regret and risk aversion[ edit ] Several brain areas are observed in the expression of risk-averse behaviour.